 It's the data that counts.
How we use it to plan for the future is crucial.
If the data on future
population is a key part of the reasoning for
building an elevated toll way, careful scrutiny
needs to be given to the statistics,
projections, assumptions and figures the Florida
Department of Transportation is using to justify
the need to build elevated lanes above existing
I-595.
The safe assumption, for years, was that
Broward's population will grow. And for decades,
that is exactly what happened in a spectacular
manner. But starting in 2005 and 2006, something
different started to come to light. According to
the South Florida Sun-Sentinel on July
21, 2007, sixteen cities in Broward started to
actually lose population. The article
states, "population drops confirm the
area's high cost of living is making Broward
less attractive to families, say real estate
analysts and demographers."
Interesting, but what does that mean in a
practical sense? The answer...it's already impacting
construction. The new population figures are
affecting plans to build new schools in Broward due to declining school enrollments. The Miami
Herald reported on August 21,
2007 that for the second year in a row,
approximately 12,448 fewer students signed up
for public education...much less than had been
expected. According to the Sun-Sentinel, "District
projections show enrollment continuing to drop
until 2012." Fewer students means fewer
families, commuters and motorists.
The statistics from Miami-Dade County require
attention too. According to the Herald
on August 21, there is declining student
enrollment to the south of Broward as well.
Since 2001, 33,000 less students have gone to
school there. Some schools are under utilized.
Maybe this is the beginning of a serious
depopulation trend.
True, Broward's population continues to increase
overall. But not as much as expected. While
experts say it is too early to determine if
there is a trend toward fewer residents, there
is a distinct message in the trend talk: We
should not to jump to conclusions about
population growth when trying to justify the
$1.5 billion 595 project.
Before we build more infrastructure, we need to
carefully understand the population trends, and
how they are being used by FDOT in justifying
the construction of an elevated reversible toll
lane bridge that will extend for miles and cost
millions of dollars.
The cost of living is increasingly a problem
in South Florida, coupled with the clear lack of
affordable housing. There is very limited
land to build new developments in Broward
County. Increasingly, the region's shortage of
available water is raised when developments are
proposed. Those realities beg the question...Why
are we rushing to build a new section of a
highway we may not need if these
population trends continue? Before we spend
all the monies projected for an elevated
595, and prior to leasing part of this highway
to a corporation to run for 35 to 50 or more
years, shouldn't we understand what demographics
we are dealing with a little bit better?
Broward County Commissioner Lois Wexler is
right. We need to understand the data. The
statistics and projections used by FDOT need
further exploration before we leap into building
a bridge over the Town of Davie and the City of
Plantation.
 Population models used in the past
may not be relevant to today's reality,
or tomorrow's. If
school boards are already starting to consider cut backs
in building, FDOT should chart a conservative
and careful course on the I-595 re-design. Why
not, right away, extend State Road 84 so it runs continuously
east and west to relieve traffic on grade level
595? Why not add extra lanes at the existing
level of the freeway? Why not wait and see what the next few
years of data shows about population and
demographic trends in Broward?
If we rush to conclusions without understanding
today's reality, we may be building an expensive
super toll way that simply is not needed.
We may be facing another example of "haste makes
waste." Is it worth the rush?
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A look at our future?
Click image for Photo page.
Video interview with Plantation Councilmember Rico Petrocelli,
posted 6.7.07. Click image to view.
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